Powell's Farewell Warning: Why the Fed Chose to Stand Still

With just six weeks left in his tenure, Fed Chair Jerome Powell addressed nearly 400 Harvard students and made it clear that interest rates between 3.50% and 3.75% are exactly where they should be. But behind that calm stance lies a volatile cocktail: core PCE inflation stuck at 3%, a successor still awaiting Senate confirmation, and recession odds creeping higher by the day. Powell's final public remarks may have sounded measured, but the message to markets was anything but routine.

The Fed at a crossroads

On 30 March 2026, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke to nearly 400 students at Harvard University as part of an introductory macroeconomics course. His address was one of his last public speeches before his second term as Fed chairman expires on 15 May 2026. Markets followed his words with extreme attention, not only because of the content but also because of the context in which the speech was delivered.

The Fed is currently in an unprecedented situation. The key interest…